Championship
Match Analysis
Derby
Swansea
Derby
D
L
L
D
L
W
Swansea
D
W
L
W
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Derby has been struggling with poor form recently, while Swansea have been in moderately better shape. Despite Swansea's historical dominance in this matchup and the sides being closely matched overall, the model predicts a home win with a 42% probability. This suggests the model is slightly more confident in a Derby victory than the market odds imply, which generally give a tighter race between the two teams.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | Swansea | 2 - 0 | February 14, 2026 |
| Swansea | Derby | 1 - 2 | November 25, 2025 |
| Swansea | Derby | 1 - 0 | April 5, 2025 |
| Derby | Swansea | 1 - 2 | November 27, 2024 |
| Swansea | Derby | 2 - 1 | April 9, 2022 |
| Derby | Swansea | 0 - 0 | October 2, 2021 |
Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Cardiff | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Charlton | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Lincoln | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 4, 26 | Away | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Burton Albion | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 31, 26 | Away | Mansfield Town | 1 - 3 | Win |
Swansea Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Stoke City | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Birmingham | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Leganes | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 28, 26 | Away | Merthyr Town | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 24, 26 | Home | Udinese | 2 - 0 | Win |
Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.09% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Derby to win
This prediction indicates that Derby has a 41.64% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.18 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.84% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.19% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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