Championship
Match Analysis
Bolton
Lincoln
Bolton
D
W
L
W
D
D
Lincoln
W
L
L
W
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Bolton with a 42% probability. Despite Lincoln having a modest quality edge and showing strong attacking form recently, Bolton has dominated their past encounters and benefits from a notable rest advantage. The market odds suggest a closer contest than the model’s view, as they imply slightly more confidence in a draw or an away win. The model also sees a 52% chance that both teams will score and a 52% chance that more than 2.5 goals will be scored, aligning somewhat more closely with the market's view on goal totals.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | Bolton | 1 - 1 | February 14, 2026 |
| Bolton | Lincoln | 1 - 1 | August 23, 2025 |
| Lincoln | Bolton | 4 - 2 | April 21, 2025 |
| Lincoln | Bolton | 0 - 1 | January 14, 2025 |
| Bolton | Lincoln | 3 - 0 | December 29, 2024 |
| Lincoln | Bolton | 0 - 1 | December 26, 2023 |
Bolton Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | QPR | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Preston | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Sheffield Wednesday | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | NAC Breda | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 28, 26 | Away | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Everton | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Lincoln Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 26 | Away | Blackpool | 1 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Portsmouth | 1 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Middlesbrough | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Derby | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Doncaster | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Barnsley | 3 - 0 | Loss |
Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bolton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions
Bolton to win
This prediction indicates that Bolton has a 42.05% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.12 %Most Likely Scorelines
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