3. Liga
Match Analysis
Verl
Fortuna Koln
Verl
L
L
L
L
W
L
Fortuna Koln
D
L
W
W
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Verl with a 51% probability. Despite Verl having a clear quality gap in their favor, their poor recent form and Fortuna Koln’s strong recent form, along with Koln’s rest advantage, make the outcome uncertain. The model also sees a good chance for both teams to score (57%) and for the match to have more than 1.5 goals (59%) and more than 2.5 goals (61%). The market odds imply slightly less confidence in a home win and in the match being high-scoring than the model does.
Verl Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 26 | Home | Hamburger SV | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | MSV Duisburg | 2 - 4 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Alemannia Aachen | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | RB Leipzig | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Bremer SV | 6 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 - 0 | Loss |
Fortuna Koln Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Alemannia Aachen | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Kickers Offenbach | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | VVV Venlo | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Borussia M'gladbach II | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 15, 26 | Home | Eintracht Trier | 1 - 3 | Loss |
3. Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fortuna Koln | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Verl | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.7% likelihood that both Verl and Fortuna Koln will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Verl to win
This prediction indicates that Verl has a 51.37% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.79 %Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 61.1% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.29% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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