Bundesliga
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05
W
W
W
D
W
W
SC Paderborn 07
W
D
W
W
D
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts that FSV Mainz 05 will win with a 56% probability. Mainz has a modest quality edge and has dominated recent meetings against Paderborn, which often included many goals. The model also sees a strong chance that both teams will score (55%) and that there will be more than 1.5 and 2.5 goals in the match (58% and 57% respectively). The market odds reflect similar confidence in the home win and in the match being high-scoring, though the model appears slightly more confident than the odds suggest in all three outcomes.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2 - 0 | February 29, 2020 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1 - 2 | October 5, 2019 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 - 0 | January 31, 2015 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 - 2 | August 24, 2014 |
FSV Mainz 05 Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Krieschow | 0 - 9 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Bournemouth | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Paris FC | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Udinese | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Holstein Kiel | 3 - 0 | Win |
SC Paderborn 07 Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Phönix Lübeck | 2 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Werder Bremen | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | VfL Osnabruck | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 17, 26 | Home | Fagiano Okayama | 3 - 1 | Win |
| May 25, 26 | Home | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 21, 26 | Away | VfL Wolfsburg | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Bundesliga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.46% likelihood that both FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.FSV Mainz 05 to win
This prediction indicates that FSV Mainz 05 has a 56.09% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.18 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.49% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.6% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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