Serie A
Match Analysis
AC Milan
Venezia
AC Milan
W
W
L
D
D
L
Venezia
L
W
D
L
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts that AC Milan will win with a 67% probability. The model sees a clear quality gap favoring AC Milan, which supports the prediction of a home win, even though both teams have moderate recent form. The model also expects the match to have more than 1.5 and 2.5 goals, aligning with Venezia's recent strong attacking form, but it suggests that goals will be harder to come by based on past meetings between the two sides. The market odds imply slightly less confidence in AC Milan’s win and in the match going over 2.5 goals than the model does.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | AC Milan | 0 - 2 | April 27, 2025 |
| AC Milan | Venezia | 4 - 0 | September 14, 2024 |
| Venezia | AC Milan | 0 - 3 | January 9, 2022 |
| AC Milan | Venezia | 2 - 0 | September 22, 2021 |
AC Milan Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Torino | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Manchester United | 2 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Chelsea | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 5, 26 | Home | Inter | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Celtic | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| May 24, 26 | Home | Cagliari | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Venezia Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Lecce | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Modena | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Stade Brestois 29 | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Saint Etienne | 4 - 3 | Loss |
| Jul 27, 26 | Away | Galatasaray | 0 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 23, 26 | Home | Vis Pesaro | 8 - 0 | Win |
Serie A Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Venezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.86% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
AC Milan to win
This prediction indicates that AC Milan has a 67.08% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 21.29 %Most Likely Scorelines
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