Serie A
Match Analysis
Fiorentina
Frosinone
Fiorentina
L
L
D
D
W
L
Frosinone
L
W
L
D
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Fiorentina holds a modest quality edge over Frosinone, but both teams are in poor recent form, and their past meetings have often ended in draws. The model predicts a home win with a 58% probability, which is notably more confident than the market odds suggest. It also predicts that both teams are likely to score (52% chance) and that there will be more than 1.5 goals (55% chance), again showing stronger confidence in a higher-scoring game than the market odds imply, while expecting fewer than 2.5 goals overall.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | Frosinone | 5 - 1 | February 11, 2024 |
| Frosinone | Fiorentina | 1 - 1 | September 28, 2023 |
| Fiorentina | Frosinone | 0 - 1 | April 7, 2019 |
| Frosinone | Fiorentina | 1 - 1 | November 9, 2018 |
| Frosinone | Fiorentina | 0 - 0 | March 20, 2016 |
| Fiorentina | Frosinone | 4 - 1 | November 1, 2015 |
Fiorentina Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 26 | Away | AS Roma | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 14, 26 | Away | Benevento | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 6, 26 | Home | Deportivo La Coruna | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Real Madrid | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 29, 26 | Away | Watford | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | QPR | 3 - 2 | Loss |
Frosinone Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Juventus | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Juve Stabia | 4 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Lazio | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Benevento | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 29, 26 | Home | Sambenedettese | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Ascoli | 1 - 0 | Win |
Serie A Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions
Fiorentina to win
This prediction indicates that Fiorentina has a 57.73% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 21.50 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.3% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.45% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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