Premier League
Match Analysis
Brighton
Aston Villa
Brighton
D
W
W
W
L
L
Aston Villa
L
L
W
L
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The two sides are closely matched in overall quality, but Brighton's strong recent form contrasts with Aston Villa's poor recent form. Despite Villa's historical dominance in meetings between these teams and their rest advantage, the model predicts a home win with a 43% probability. This prediction is notably more confident in Brighton than the market odds suggest, which imply a lower chance of a home victory. The model also expects both teams to score and for the match to have more than 1.5 and 2.5 goals, aligning closely with the market odds for those outcomes.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | Brighton | 1 - 0 | February 11, 2026 |
| Brighton | Aston Villa | 3 - 4 | December 3, 2025 |
| Brighton | Aston Villa | 0 - 3 | April 2, 2025 |
| Aston Villa | Brighton | 2 - 2 | December 30, 2024 |
| Brighton | Aston Villa | 1 - 0 | May 5, 2024 |
| Aston Villa | Brighton | 6 - 1 | September 30, 2023 |
Brighton Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 26 | Away | Tromso | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Bologna | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | AS Roma | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Strasbourg | 4 - 3 | Win |
| May 24, 26 | Home | Manchester United | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| May 17, 26 | Away | Leeds | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Aston Villa Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Borussia Monchengladbach | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 7, 26 | Away | Bayern München | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 4, 26 | Away | Bangkok Glass | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 28, 26 | Home | Real Sociedad | 2 - 4 | Loss |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | FC Porto | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 21, 26 | Away | Walsall | 0 - 5 | Win |
Premier League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.79% likelihood that both Brighton and Aston Villa will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Brighton to win
This prediction indicates that Brighton has a 42.77% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.95 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.07% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.74% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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