La Liga
Match Analysis
Alaves
Villarreal
Alaves
D
W
D
W
W
D
Villarreal
D
D
W
W
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Villarreal has a clear quality edge over Alaves, which is the main reason the model leans toward an away win. Despite this, the model is not highly confident, assigning only a 41% chance to a Villarreal victory, which is noticeably lower than what the current market odds imply. The model also sees a good chance that both teams will score and that more than one goal will be scored in the game, reflecting the strong form of both sides and the recent trend of tight matches between them.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | Villarreal | 1 - 1 | March 13, 2026 |
| Villarreal | Alaves | 3 - 1 | January 10, 2026 |
| Alaves | Villarreal | 1 - 0 | March 8, 2025 |
| Villarreal | Alaves | 3 - 0 | November 9, 2024 |
| Alaves | Villarreal | 1 - 1 | February 10, 2024 |
| Villarreal | Alaves | 1 - 1 | October 22, 2023 |
Alaves Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 26 | Away | Rayo Vallecano | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Getafe | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 7, 26 | Away | Racing Santander | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | Castellón | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Girona | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Eibar | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Villarreal Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Atletico Madrid | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Racing Santander | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Galatasaray | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 5, 26 | Home | Levante | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 17, 26 | Away | Benfica | 2 - 0 | Loss |
La Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.5% likelihood that both Alaves and Villarreal will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Villarreal to win
This prediction indicates that Villarreal has a 41.26% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.10 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.21% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.99% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions
View plans
Odds Comparison
Subscribe to compare bookmaker odds
View plans
Comments