Division 2 - Södra Götaland
Match Analysis
Karlshamn
Nosaby
Karlshamn
L
L
L
D
L
L
Nosaby
W
L
W
W
L
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Historically, matches between Karlshamn and Nosaby have been fairly even and usually feature plenty of goals, so this fixture follows that trend in spirit. The model predicts Nosaby to win with a 45% chance, reflecting their clear quality advantage and moderate recent form, compared to Karlshamn's poor recent form and defensive struggles. The market odds also favor Nosaby, aligning closely with the model's view. Additionally, the model sees a good chance of over 2.5 goals, slightly more confident than the market odds suggest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nosaby | Karlshamn | 2 - 2 | May 30, 2026 |
| Karlshamn | Nosaby | 1 - 3 | October 11, 2025 |
| Nosaby | Karlshamn | 4 - 0 | June 18, 2025 |
| Nosaby | Karlshamn | 1 - 1 | September 21, 2024 |
| Karlshamn | Nosaby | 4 - 0 | May 31, 2024 |
| Karlshamn | Nosaby | 2 - 1 | November 13, 2021 |
Karlshamn Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Sölvesborg | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | IFK Trelleborg | 1 - 5 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Oskarshamns AIK | 5 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | Räppe | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jun 28, 26 | Away | Linero | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Jun 18, 26 | Away | Karlskrona | 3 - 1 | Loss |
Nosaby Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Torns | 5 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 18, 26 | Home | IFK Trelleborg | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 14, 26 | Away | Sölvesborg | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Linero | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 30, 26 | Away | Karlskrona | 5 - 1 | Loss |
| Jun 17, 26 | Home | Lilla Torg W | 3 - 3 | Draw |
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nosaby | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 29 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 43 | -25 | 8 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.17% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Nosaby to win
This prediction indicates that Nosaby has a 45.09% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.33 %Most Likely Scorelines
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