Premier League
Match Analysis
Chelsea
Brighton
Chelsea
W
W
W
D
W
L
Brighton
W
W
D
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Although Brighton has a modest quality edge and has dominated recent meetings between the two sides, the model predicts Chelsea to win with a 48% chance. Both teams are in strong recent form, and Chelsea have shown particularly strong attacking form lately, creating many shooting chances. The model also suggests there's a 57% chance both teams will score and a 56% chance the match will have more than 2.5 goals, which aligns with Brighton's history of high-scoring games against Chelsea. The market odds show slightly less confidence in a Chelsea win and in the match going over 2.5 goals than the model's predictions.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | Chelsea | 3 - 0 | April 21, 2026 |
| Chelsea | Brighton | 1 - 3 | September 27, 2025 |
| Brighton | Chelsea | 3 - 0 | February 14, 2025 |
| Brighton | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | February 8, 2025 |
| Chelsea | Brighton | 4 - 2 | September 28, 2024 |
| Brighton | Chelsea | 1 - 2 | May 15, 2024 |
Chelsea Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 26 | Home | Luton | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 24, 26 | Away | Fulham | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Real Sociedad | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | AC Milan | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 5, 26 | Home | Juventus | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Brighton Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 26 | Home | Tromso | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Aston Villa | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 20, 26 | Away | Tromso | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Bologna | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | AS Roma | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Strasbourg | 4 - 3 | Win |
Premier League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.53% likelihood that both Chelsea and Brighton will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Chelsea to win
This prediction indicates that Chelsea has a 47.86% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.03 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.53% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.66% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions
View plans
Odds Comparison
Subscribe to compare bookmaker odds
View plans
Comments