La Liga
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo
L
D
D
W
D
W
Athletic Club
L
L
L
L
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Celta Vigo have moderate recent form, while Athletic Club have struggled in recent matches. Despite Athletic Club's history of scoring in games against Celta Vigo, the model sees a clear quality gap favoring the home side. The model predicts a home win with a 43% probability, which is notably more confident than what the current market odds imply. Additionally, the model suggests it's somewhat more likely than the odds indicate that under 2.5 total goals will be scored.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | Celta Vigo | 1 - 1 | May 17, 2026 |
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | 2 - 0 | December 14, 2025 |
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | 1 - 2 | January 19, 2025 |
| Athletic Club | Celta Vigo | 3 - 1 | September 22, 2024 |
| Celta Vigo | Athletic Club | 2 - 1 | May 15, 2024 |
| Athletic Club | Celta Vigo | 4 - 3 | November 10, 2023 |
Celta Vigo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 26 | Home | Osasuna | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Valencia | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Napoli | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 5, 26 | Away | Sassuolo | 1 - 4 | Win |
| Jul 29, 26 | Home | Academico Viseu | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Sporting Gijon | 1 - 0 | Win |
Athletic Club Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 26 | Away | Barcelona | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Sevilla | 1 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Zaragoza | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 14, 26 | Away | Atalanta | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Marseille | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Burgos | 0 - 3 | Win |
La Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.43% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Celta Vigo to win
This prediction indicates that Celta Vigo has a 42.57% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.03 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.46% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.2% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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